Clarification about the term "GPS Shutdown"

[High Sierra]

You have yet to name one.


You have yet to explain how shutting off GPS will present some
insurmountable obstacle to terrorists.


Boy, you two take the cake.

 

[High Sierra]

High Sierra writes:




Compasses are not that reliable. And they don't tell you where you are.

Where do you buy your compasses. Mine have always been reliable. You're correct
compasses can't tell you where you are. You should know where you are.

 

[Peter]

Where do you buy your compasses. Mine have always been reliable.

My Silva compass failed the very first time I used it. After trying to
make sense of the landmarks I could see and the compass readings, I
finally gave up on it and decided to exchange it later. Then I
walked around the corner and saw the entrance to the old abandoned
iron mine.

 

[Stan Gosnell]

Terrorists don't have to depend on anything other than their will to
terrorize.

Which brings up the question of exactly how shutting off GPS will deter
terrorists. Precision is completely unnecessary. A missile with
inertial guidance is more than accurate enough for that. We aren't
talking about needing to put a warhead through a particular window. All
you need is to be able to target a city. Close counts in horseshoes,
nukes, and terrorist attacks. Chemical and biological weapons have even
less need for precision.

If shutting off GPS would stop an attack, then I have no objections. But
I fail to see how it would have any effect at all, other than to increase
the disruptions, making the attack even more effective.

 

[Mxsmanic]

Where do you buy your compasses. Mine have always been reliable.

There are many local anomalies in the geomagnetic field that will
introduce errors into compasses in almost any location. Just having
nearby ferromagnetic masses is enough.

You're correct compasses can't tell you where you are. You
should know where you are.

What you should know won't help when you're lost.

 

[Mxsmanic]

And what are they then?

Air travel, surveying, road transport, other types of navigation,
timekeeping, and so on.

What makes them of more value than the potential
loss of human life in the event of a GPS enabled terrorist attack?

Their cumulative utility to society in general.

Individual human lives do not have infinite value. Their value must be
balanced against many other variables. That's how things work in the
real world.

In science fiction, Captain Kirk might well put himself and his entire
crew at serious risk of death just to save one crewmember. In real
life, you let the crewmember die. Sometimes these policies are even in
writing. That's why not everyone can sit near an emergency exit on a
plane, and why passengers in wheelchairs are evacuated last.

Can you please give me the name of the company that relies on GPS timing
signals down to the nanosecond that does not have a backup plan in place?
you have continually described such use but have yet to reveal the company
name.

Tell me about the terrorist uses of GPS.

 

[Alan Browne]

Juergen Nieveler writes:




No. Programming is not done from omnidirectional antennas. You don't
want anyone else listening in. It takes hours for the entire
constellation to pass over the right points.

You can communicate with narrow beam antennas over a good portion of the
hemisphere wrt to the gound station. Dish antennas are the simplist. Bigger
dish = bigger gain = communicating lower on the horizon. Thus from Colorado
Springs most sats in the hemisphere can be updated quite quickly as seen or as
they come over the horizon.

The only reason they need to pass over any particular patch of the earth is for
position and velocity measurement using optical systems. Such stations are at
Hawaii, Ascension Island, Diego Garcia, Kwajalein, and Colorado Springs. The
SV's don't have to pass directly overhead the stations. I don't know if any of
these stations have independant means to upload messages, but it is certain that
Colorado Springs is not the only facility.

The 'monitoring' cycle to determine if the satellites are outputting a valid PR
is about 4 hours. That is used in part to set the health word for the SV. But
getting messages up to the sats takes far less time. (Another reason for
SBAS/WAAS is to get integrity data to aircraft faster than the GPS ground
segment can do it).

 

[Mxsmanic]

Terrorists don't have to depend on anything other than their will to terrorize.

In that case, shutting off GPS would be useless in the fight against
terrorism, even though it would cripple many parts of the civilian
infrastructure. Which in turn means that GPS should never be shut off,
since doing so is always a net loss.

One of the threat items is, OTOH, how they would exploit the advantages and
benefits of GPS.

How would they do that, exactly?

They are no different than anyone in their desire for
reliable, cheap solutions to problems that further their cause.

Give a few examples.

Stop evading the question, Mx, what is currently so GPS dependant that it would
fail entirely if GPS were out for a brief period (24 - 72 hours).

You first. See my questions above.

I'm not the one suggesting a disabling of GPS.

Who I think is stupid is getting very clear, Mx.

Not to me. You haven't answered my questions. No amount of emotional
rhetoric ever persuades or distracts me; you _must_ answer the questions
to persuade me.

Terrorists don't worry very much abut critical dependancy. Even if an attack
fails, it is a success for them as it provokes a response and maintains a high
fear and defense level... which is what terrorism is about.

One of the things it can provoke is a crippling halt to GPS, which
seriously damages the sociey's infrastructure without any action at all
on the part of any terrorists.

Like the man said, we have nothing to fear but fear itself. And
terrorists know that very well, but most other people don't.

The cheapest means of guidance for terorists, short of suicide
bombers, is GPS.

Guidance for _what_?

If a moderately sophisticated unmanned vehicle is pointed at something, the
liklihood that it has GPS for guidance is very high.

What leads you to this conclusion?

 

[Sam Wormley]

Get people to stop smoking.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005110.html

 

[Pieter Litchfield]

Well Mxsmanic, I have to say you have a good point. Missles and planes flew
well long before GPS. I think the argument in favor of a policy on shutting
down GPS in case of terrorist activity might be that GPS represents a very
low cost, very accurate means of navigation. Given that a handheld can
output a lot of meaningful data to an autopilot, it would seem that it
represents an almost perfect low cost solution to the problem of the
accurate delivery of weapons. Do I remember hearing something about one of
the 9-11 terrorists having a GPS on board the flight from Boston that turned
over my head in Albany NY and headed for the trade center. Maybe that's why
there is that concern.

But you pose a very legitimate question - why would they use GPS in the
first place? On one hand, they have good financing from their fellow
travellers around the world. There are still some weapons producers who
would like to see us damaged (or prefer money to friends). So there really
isn't much to stop then from acquiring the guidance technology they need -
providing it doesn't use our GPS system. In one of my earlier posts I
pointed out that if one wanted to detonate a dirty nuke and ruin NYC for
many years, a martyr and a pickup truck would make a great "delivery
system." Of course, that would produce a very sub-optimal ground burst with
a poor spread, but what the hell - it would terrorize NY would it not? So
there is little need to worry about GPS (or the lack thereof) as a
terrorist. Shutting it off for short periods would probably not cause any
catastrophic problems to the US, but would be a massive pain in the butt.
But it probably would just cause the terrorists to fall back to "plan B" -
the pickup truck. They are already here. They already have the explosives.
They probably have some foreign produced dirty waste to spray around. Who
needs GPS.

So why make such a policy? Well- if I were President I'd hate it if another
attack was launched against us and I hadn't crafted policies that allowed
meaningful response. Suppose, for example, Chicago was hit by a GPS guided
aircraft bomb, and some of the constant, ill-informed media critics demanded
to know what the administration had done to protect against this and the
answer was "nothing reasonable could be done to protect us from GPS guided
weapons because the civilian uses are too important." I don't think that's
politically accceptable, and that's about as legitimate a reason as any.

But your point is an excellent one - missles flew long before there was
GPS.

 

[Mxsmanic]

I think the argument in favor of a policy on shutting
down GPS in case of terrorist activity might be that GPS represents a very
low cost, very accurate means of navigation.

I don't think anyone with the means to develop or deploy unmanned
aircraft or cruise missiles is going to be discouraged by the cost of
other navigation systems.

Do I remember hearing something about one of
the 9-11 terrorists having a GPS on board the flight from Boston that turned
over my head in Albany NY and headed for the trade center.

I've never heard anything like this. Why not just look out the window
instead?

Well- if I were President I'd hate it if another
attack was launched against us and I hadn't crafted policies that allowed
meaningful response.

It was the first attack that kept him in office; I'm not sure that he's
worried about future attacks (although he can't be reelected now).

I think the President just doesn't know what he's doing, like so many
elected officials when it comes to technology.

Suppose, for example, Chicago was hit by a GPS guided
aircraft bomb, and some of the constant, ill-informed media critics demanded
to know what the administration had done to protect against this and the
answer was "nothing reasonable could be done to protect us from GPS guided
weapons because the civilian uses are too important."

How would you identify the bomb as GPS-guided?

 

[High Sierra]

High Sierra writes:




There are many local anomalies in the geomagnetic field that will
introduce errors into compasses in almost any location. Just having
nearby ferromagnetic masses is enough.




What you should know won't help when you're lost.

If you have a compass and know how to use it......

 

[JetCaptain]

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005110.html

Sam, you really nailed me on that one. Never saw it coming. Was that a GPS
enabled stealth post?

Thanks for being so patient and informative. Though a lot of fun, I think
the thread has run its course, so time for me to leave it.

My warmest regards to you Sam. I wish you all the best.

 

[Iolaos]

Here in the US, we could always hire an illegal immigrant to drive the
tractor. I have been to most foreign countries and most (if not all of) of
the fields are tended by hand. India, Japan, China, etc. Or in this new
age, have people forgotten how to drive a tractor? I have yet to see a
Brahma Bull remotely controlled by GPS.

The whole point of the discussion. We want to be able to defend against
this. This point makes the case in favor of selectively shutting down the
GPS system for all but our military.

Rather a small concern if there were a national emergency requiring the
temporary shutdown of the GPS system. I don't think I would suffer much if
my city has to stop mapping the location of trees on public property so
that they can be "managed". This is a $100,000 boondogle of taxpayer money.
All they have to do is draw an x on a map. Oil wells and utility poles
don't move, at least they are not supposed to I can't be convinced that
GPS is the only way a new pole can be set or a new well started. The
accuracy requirements are just not there. I have seen utility poles set. No
GPS was used. Wells have been drilled for years. First there is exploration
using sounding techniques. Then the site is marked. Do you really believe
you would miss an oil reserve by drilling a 100 feet or more away from the
"ideal" center (even if there was an ideal center)?

Hardly worthy of note. Compared to a national emergency, the squirrel can
get lost as far as I am concerned.

Paper maps work just as well. Try Rand McNally for a change. Don't want to
lose all of your skills do you?Just what percentage of motorists totally
rely on their GPS systems? The answer is really None!

So will somebody please tell me what company relies on having their time
set to the nanosecond so that they can continue to stay in business? There
has been much talk of this mystical company but I have yet to read it's
name. I am sure the small amount of capital I might have invested in this
company will not suffer if I divest it from my portfolio.

You certainly have an interesting 'nick' for a guy who cannot
see the disastrous consequences if the global GPS system were to
shut down for a few hours ten years from now.

And don't think it'll be shut down only in the event of an
attack - it would have to be shut down every time the threat
level goes to 'puce' or 'chartreuse'.

Terrorists generally don't phone ahead with warnings about
targeting or timing.

In short, the Bush administration comments have only confirmed
what the EU already knew when it decided to spend billions on a
duplicative and otherwise unneeded satellite constellation:

The USA simply isn't a reliable partner anymore.

 

[Iolaos]

I don't think that there is a proposal out there that reasonably anticipates
shutting down civilian GPS for months. About the only thing on the list
that requires immediate GPS support is precision guided ordinance, and I'm
guessing the military isn't depending on the civilian signals for this one
anyway.

I am somewhat familiar with "precision agriculture", and frankly some of it
is a tractor salesmans best tool for maintaining margin. A year without it
would not substantially impact the world's food supply.

All the wildlife would be happy to avoid those annoying wildlife
biologists - in fact the cancellation of wildlife studies could result in
more federal dollars for reading programs or midnight basketball or
something really important like health care for the elderly.

As for auto navigation systems, the world will survive quite nicely for a
few days or weeks without them. maybe people would be "forced" to reacquire
the fine old art of map and compass navigation.

In short, there's nothing on this list that would be substantially impacted
by a short pause in GPS signals. As the minutes turn into hours or weeks or
months, the impacts might become measurable.

How about airliners in flight which depend on GPS?

Granted, they all have backups now, but the USA, at least, is
already talking about shutting down the VOR/ILS system a few
years down the road.

 

[Sam Wormley]

Sam, you really nailed me on that one. Never saw it coming. Was that a GPS
enabled stealth post?

Thanks for being so patient and informative. Though a lot of fun, I think
the thread has run its course, so time for me to leave it.

My warmest regards to you Sam. I wish you all the best.

I agree the threat has passed.
Also regards,
-Sam

 

[Italy Anonymous Remailer]

On 18 Dec 2004, [email protected] (Iolaos) wrote:

Snipped

Granted, they all have backups now, but the USA, at least, is
already talking about shutting down the VOR/ILS system a few
years down the road.

A classified part of the program may well deal with the use of non civilian
(ie: military) type GPS for commercial air traffic. Nobody in this group
can say with proof positive that it is or is not being considered.

That is assuming no one here has access to highly classified national
security documents and is stupid enough to post what they have read to this
newsgroup.

 

[Italy Anonymous Remailer]

Snipped

The USA simply isn't a reliable partner anymore.

A partnership implies shared burdens of cost and risk.

How much did and does the EU contribute to the cost of the development,
operational support, and maintenance of the US GPS such that they would be
our partners as you suggest? Did the EU bear 50% of those costs to make
them an equal partner? Do they continue to bear 50% of the operational and
maintenance costs?

If the answer is zero, then the EU was never a partner and was only reaping
a free benefit granted to them by benevolence of the US government.

If the number is somewhere in between, your dividends are based upon your
investment. In other words, you get what you pay for.

 

[Mxsmanic]

If you have a compass and know how to use it......

It still won't tell you where you are. At best, it will give you a
rough indication of north, accurate to within a few degrees.

 

[Mxsmanic]

A classified part of the program may well deal with the use of non civilian
(ie: military) type GPS for commercial air traffic.

Eventually the "military" GPS will be declassified, anyway.